Donna McPartland

SLM 521

Web Dropin #5

What are the Chances?

Probability deals with looking at the chances that a certain event might occur. The better we can estimate the probability of an occurrence, the better chance we have of making the right choice.

For this activity you will work with your partner.

Part A

You will need 2 number cubes, a white cube and a red one, numbered 1 to 6. The white cube is positive; the one red one is negative.

1. Toss the cubes and do the integer addition.

2. Keep a running tally of each sum tossed.

3. After 50 tosses, complete the table below.

4. Theoretically, how many different sums are possible?

5. What are the chances of tossing a sum of -4?

Possible sums	-5	-4	-3	-2	-1	0	1	2	3	4	5
Number of times tossed

Part B

Go to Crossing the River. Before you play the game, do the following.

1. Compare the author’s table of theoretical possibilities with yours. They should be the same.

2. Compare this with your experimental possibilities on your chart. Will this be the same? Why or why not?

Part C

1. Play the game with your partner.

a. Print out the gameboard.

b. Get 30 chips from the classroom supply.

c. Play the game several times.

2. As you play, consider the following:

a. Are there choices you can make that might increase your chances of winning?

b. Has the reasoning you’ve done prior to playing the game given you strategies for winning? How?

c. Where will you place your chips to have the best chance of winning?

Part D

The results on your chart are from only 50 tries.

In our next class period we will make a new table, compiling the results of the entire class.

Do you predict any changes? Why?